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Chips stock report may 24

Chips are in control

Nick Schmidt

Last week we were watching for a pause or pullback. Friday-Tuesday were not fun, a lot of the big movers of this trend definitely pulled back, but they were all quickly supported by major levels. Most stocks had a constructive pullback to the 4-week and bounced.

The overall action in leading stocks was incredibly constructive.

When you zoom out although those 3 days were not easy in real-time, it was nothing compared to the moves higher the leading stocks have had the past 7 weeks. Well deserved pullback, and impressively supported.

Although Semis are the top dogs, last week we saw back to back high participation days. Lots of stocks moved higher. Last week we were discussing how participation was lackluster outside of semis. Its not on its own a sign the market is going to go up or down.... but its always a positive to see back to back broad breadth.

The strongest stocks are all related to AI infrastructure. Everything related to compute and chips. The report from April 12th "The whole AI stack is moving" continues to be true almost 2 months later.

Foundries & Semicap / SMH$576.32
Foundries & Semicap
MA4W·10W·30W

THE group to focus on. Historical move higher.... was barely able to pull back or rest before more buyers stepped in.

Software / IGV$94.01
Software
MA4W·10W·30W

Continue to see good action and rotation into software. The biggest standout here is the amount of stocks that surprised on earnings and gapped higher into fresh new trends.

One of my favorite fundamentals to look for is 3 quarters accelerating sales. A lot of these names with this are in Software. DOCN DDOG BB FTNT CRWD.

Neoclouds / WGMI$61.93
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W

Neocloud group breaking out to new highs just as many of the neoclouds are also coming up the right sides of their base (stocks below)

My Focus

5 charts
TSLA$426.01
Robotics
MA4W·10W·30W
6 year base. The past 2 breakout attempts have failed, but each time has made a higher low. Price is tightening up each time it attempts the breakout again. We are here again after the 3rd higher low, and trading 3 weeks tight.

Below I have another close up view of the action as well as a video overview of exactly what I see here.
6mo view
You can see zoomed in here the 3 week tight closes. Close above $430 or pullback towards $400 again.
TER$358.44
Foundries & Semicap
MA4W·10W·30W
TER had a big candle with a lower wick after earnings but it closed on the base pivot. Small sign of structure and potentially a shakeout vs distribution.

Past 3 weeks have been very tight and on the same base pivot.

This is what I would consider very controlled action which makes me believe earnings week was the shakeout and its more likely to go higher.

The past 3 weeks it never undercut the low of that earnings candle = subtle sign of strength.
CLS$367.37
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
This was a top focus a few weeks ago as it broke out of a multi-month base. Since then it has lagged but its acting very organized and respecting structure. It shook out and closed on the base pivot showing its acting as support. The 10-week has also caught up here to price so we have a confluence of support similar to KLAC last week.
AVGO$414.14
AI Networking Silicon
MA4W·10W·30W
Resistance -> support. Similar look to KLAC. This is in the same subtheme as ALAB CRDO

Notable Charts

14 charts
Software
RNG$43.54
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
This has been trading around its base pivot. Hasnt traded the cleanest here but its sitting right on top of a multi-year base. Similar action we saw in DOCN ZM BAND etc..
TEAM$85.42
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Character change. 10-week was resistance the entire way down. Now its trading in a tight range and being supported by the 10-week.
TWLO$187.88
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
This is one of the big recent earnings gaps software leaders. It has remained in this range for 3 weeks giving a clear upper & lower level to watch. If I wanted to get in here I'd prefer to watch and use $180 level to manage risk vs waiting until it breaks out of this range.
Power & Grid
BE$302.49
Power & Grid
MA4W·10W·30W
One of the strongest names of this cycle. Another display of 3 weeks tight and successful 4-week support.
AI Hyperscalers
AMZN$266.32
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
Big breakout of a massive base in April. Recent pullback has held $260 the prior ATH. Sign of strength so far and potential secondary entry.
GOOGL$382.97
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
Current position. Trading this tight range here. So far constructive and level I would use to get long if I wasn't
ORCL$192.08
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
Character change. Trading in a tight range. Resistance -> support. This is a sneaky nice chart setting up.
Neoclouds
CIFR$21.97
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Higher lows coming up right side here. Potential official breakout this week.
CRWV$105.49
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Laggard of the group recently but successful retest and close above $100 livermore and pivot.
IREN$56.83
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Higher lows coming up the right side of the base. 2 levels here to manage an early entry.
NBIS$214.77
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Leader of the pack. Got in on the 4-week pullback. Working so far.
AI Networking Silicon
ALAB$306.88
AI Networking Silicon
MA4W·10W·30W
Strong action!
CRDO$218.41
AI Networking Silicon
MA4W·10W·30W
New position from Friday closed at a new all time high. A pullback to $200 if I didn't get involved I would make a focus. Ideally it doesn't turn back though. Earnings coming up June 1 and need to build cushion.
Memory & Storage
MU$751.00
Memory & Storage
MA4W·10W·30W
Current position. So far successful 4-week support. Still trading in a tight range. Do we see a follow through next week or get a 3rd week tight?