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June 1 report

Strong but stretched

Nick Schmidt

Overall Market Thoughts

Last week closed strong across the board. May was once again another powerful month. For the most part recent trades continue to get traction, leaders are leading, and the market continues to act constructive. There are however some signs that have me a little bit cautious short-term.

Reasons I am going to be careful this week

1. Semis are extended again. Last time they became extended 4 weeks ago we saw a quick 2 week pullback. This has been the strongest group and it looks like they need to rest again. I am pretty concentrated in semis and 2 weeks ago the weakness was a good opportunity to add exposure that I didn't really take advantage of because I was focused on managing my positions. Many leading stocks mostly in Semis but also across other growth groups like Space & Neoclouds are also short-term extended.

2. Optical/Photonic stocks were the first group to lead us higher. They deserve a rest and its best for the market if they rebase and digest their moves. We saw weakness last week across the group which is fine as long as they start base building. A full break down is not a good sign.

3. I don't mention sentiment often but the Put/Call ratio ended last week at the lowest level since 2021. This means buying is heavily skewed towards Calls as people chase this market. It doesn't mean we have to pull back but its something notable to pay attention to because whenever everybody swings too far to one side its not sustainable.

"The market likes to make a fool of the most people all the time."

4. This one is personal but April & May I made a ton of progress. Its very easy to give progress back and I want to protect it. I'm not concerned with keeping my account at highs here I know most time is spent in a drawdown but I'm not willing to give too much up.

Overall outside of those short-term observations I remain very optimistic on this market

• We have had no real distribution yet which always clusters up as a market tops.
• Stocks continue to break out, hold key levels, and act like leaders.
• We are seeing strong rotation. Even with Semis extended we saw a hard rotation into Software again last week. Rotation in growth groups keeps a bull market alive.

Semis remain the top group, but focus this week in my opinion should be on Software seeing fresh breakouts, rare earth stocks, and robotics.

Current Holdings

95% invested|5% cash
MU20%
+134.84%
Avg $413.47Last $971.00
TSLA25%
+6.84%
Avg $407.88Last $435.79
NBIS15%
+20.50%
Avg $191.78Last $231.09
CRDO15%
+17.10%
Avg $201.56Last $236.03
ASML10%
+5.04%
Avg $1535.38Last $1612.76
DOCN10%
+0.17%
Avg $155.68Last $155.95

Position Notes

MU20% position
MA4W·10W·30W
This is my top priority managing this position. Just like 4 weeks ago after a straight up move we digested and pulled back to the 4-week. Thats healthy action and expected, and my goal is to pad my equity curve with my other positions if needed to continue to sit with this.

I am watching the 4-week for an exit on a closing basis, or if this ends up displaying parabolic climactic action selling more into strength.
TSLA25% position
MA4W·10W·30W
Getting tighter and tight coming up the right side here. Not much to do yet with my current position.
NBIS15% position
MA4W·10W·30W
I don't have an A+ entry in this I had to get in a secondary entry on a pullback to the 4-week when I bought. Sneaking in to a leader. For me I am watching the rising 4-week on a closing basis as a guide to exit. So far we continue to find support.
CRDO15% position
MA4W·10W·30W
This has earnings Monday after the close. Expected move is around 17%. Current cushion here is 17%. If it holds strong into close Monday I plan on sitting through earnings. If it pulls back and I lose my cushion then I will exit before earnings.
ASML10% position
MA4W·10W·30W
This has been a slow position but acting well. The pullbacks to the base were supported which indicates resistance -> support. Now seems to be riding the 4-week. With semis extended if they pullback it may put pressure on this. As long as it holds above its base pivot structure is intact, but not sure I want to sit around. Currently stops set to even but may decide to exit if we lose the 4-week and revisit or use funds elsewhere.
DOCN10% position
MA4W·10W·30W
3 weeks tight. No cushion yet using original stops. If shaken out will watch to buy back. Want it to push out of this range.

My Focus

4 charts
TSLA$435.79
Robotics
MA4W·10W·30W
This has been a tough stock but its doing everything right. Currently supported by $430 level which can be used to manage risk. If weakness, eyes on the recent 3 week range it broke above $415-$430.
DOCN$155.95
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Strong software name. Up over 200% in the past few months and instead of pulling back its basing at highs. This is a big sign of strength. We want to see it break out of this range to get working. I prefer weak or quiet entries so started some last week in the range.
MP$64.70
Materials
MA4W·10W·30W
Trump administration took a 15% stake in this few months ago. Higher low 2 weeks ago indicating its coming up the right side of its base. Rejected last week at its $70 base pivot reaffirms that level is important. Watching for another higher low this week, or push through $70.
CRCL$113.00
Fintech
MA4W·10W·30W
Missed the breakout of this from its contraction few weeks ago. Since then its been building a base above its pivot. Shakeout last week makes it look more appealing.

Notable Charts

19 charts
Software
INOD$104.98
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Watch for potential retest.
PLTR$156.54
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
One of the biggest leaders in 2025 we discussed last week making subtle higher low and tightening up. It broke out in a big way. I should have got long faster but had too many positions. On watch this week to see how it develops and if it lets us in. Either way this breaking out is GOOD for the group and good for the market.
RNG$43.31
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
Software stock that has been consolidating near the top of a 3 year base, Resistance -> support flip so far. Looks like what many previous software names looked like before they recently broke into fresh uptrends.
TEAM$107.61
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
This was on watch in the range its been building last week and broke out powerfully. Last week was the buy, not here, but successful digestion and follow through is good for the group.
TWLO$190.64
Software
MA4W·10W·30W
This was one of the first software stocks to gap higher on good earnings and lead. Its been digesting near highs in this range here similar to DOCN.
Power & Grid
BE$285.00
Power & Grid
MA4W·10W·30W
Big leader thats just been digesting. Watching it build out a new base.
SMR$12.67
Power & Grid
MA4W·10W·30W
I don't really want to waste time in energy stocks but if Nuclear gains momentum SMR is a character change with increasing fund ownership and high short float.
30% Short
AI Hyperscalers
AMZN$270.64
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
Prior ATH was supported. Resistance -> support.
CLS$385.39
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
So far successful retest of its base pivot. Acting well. So many good looking stocks hard to focus on a few but this looks like it will follow through soon.
GOOGL$380.34
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
Big leader. I just exited to free up cash as it loses the 4-week. Likely just base building and setting up again.
ORCL$225.78
AI Hyperscalers
MA4W·10W·30W
Extended here now, entry was last week. Good for group good for market. This is a character change that is stair stepping up the right side. 3 weeks tight and breakout. Similar pattern across the market.
Neoclouds
CIFR$23.65
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Broke out last week now sitting on its base pivot. Breakout stays intact above $23
CRWV$109.53
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
This has been the laggard of the group but structure is intact. See how its building a base above its $100 pivot. Resistance -> support.
IREN$63.54
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
Coming up the right side of the base. Similar stair stepper action we see across the market. Breakout, digest, breakout.
NBIS$231.09
Neoclouds
MA4W·10W·30W
The biggest leader of the bunch which is why I snuck in 2 weeks ago. Quick digestion last week and new closing high.
Materials
B$42.55
Materials
MA4W·10W·30W
Price is contracting. Lower highs and higher lows as it tightens up. Looks VCP ish. From contraction comes expansion.
Fintech
DAVE$282.56
Fintech
MA4W·10W·30W
BIG base here. Good to see the group all setting up together. Mentioned last week the higher low indicates its close to breaking out. Now up against its base pivot.
HOOD$94.30
Fintech
MA4W·10W·30W
Big 2025 leader moving again is good for the market. I mentioned last week while this range was still tight and putting in a higher low from the previous big candle. Now a bit extended but the whole group moving together is a good sign. Watching for potential retest of the $90 pivot.
XYZ$75.72
Fintech
MA4W·10W·30W
This looks similar to early DOCN BAND ZM multi-year bases. We have a higher low last week and group participation. The major base breakout isnt until $85, but watching structure as it makes higher lows.