HOOD

+106% in 10 Weeks

May – Jul 2025

Result

+106%

Hold Time

10 weeks

Market

Early uptrend

The Trade

During the 2025 correction I was keeping a relative strength list of names that were holding up and when the market started to look like it was putting in a bottom I was watching for stocks whose character was starting to change. HOOD was one of the first ones I bought in the new uptrend because during the crash it pulled through the 30-week but reclaimed it the very next week while the 30-week was still rising and it engulfed the prior candle, and this was right as the broader market was starting to shape up.

After that big accumulation week on the 30-week it had another strong week where buyers stepped in and then it paused again very quietly. The week I actually bought it, price pulled tight into the lows of the previous quiet week and buyers started stepping in again so it became this very low-risk quiet entry that gave immediate feedback, closing the week strong.

After that the market just continued to follow through off the lows and the wind was at our back and HOOD ended up being one of the biggest leaders of the cycle. It went up nine weeks in a row while I held it and it starts to feel weird when something just keeps going that strong, like over 100% in nine weeks. It started going a little vertical into the $100 level and I ended up selling right under $100 as I saw it struggling because I thought it was extended and going to top. It pulled back that week and closed with a big upper wick and it felt like I may have timed the top but then it continued to go up like 60% over the next few weeks before it actually did finally top.

What I Learned

Early cycle, wind at your back

The market had just bottomed off a massive correction and most of the heavy lifting was done by the cycle itself. When you're early in a new uptrend and you catch a real leader, the market does the work for you. HOOD went up nine straight weeks and a lot of that was just being in the right place at the right time because the broader market was following through.

Quiet entries, tighter risk

I didn't buy HOOD on strength. Between the big up weeks it was pausing quietly, sitting in these tight little areas, and I entered while it was still sitting in that quiet zone before the next week followed through. It wasn't a textbook weakness buy but it was the same idea, buying in a low-volatility pause lets you use a tighter stop and take a larger position size because your risk per share is smaller. Even though buying on strength probably would have worked here because we were early in the cycle, buying quiet always helps me manage the trade better.

Trail stops, don't call tops

I sold near $100 because I thought it was extended and going to top. It pulled back that week and I felt clever about it, but then it went up another 60% before it actually topped. The move was to raise my stop and let the market take me out instead of trying to predict where it ends. When something is working that well you just trail it.

The 4-week line as a trailing guide

This trade was actually when I started paying attention to the 4-week moving average. Looking back at the chart, HOOD rode the 4-week almost perfectly on the way up. That became something I added to my charts after this and started using as a trailing reference for strong momentum names.

Trust price action over narratives

After the crash, the news was super negative everywhere and most people didn't trust that the bottom was real. They thought it was a bounce, not a new move. But names like HOOD were following through strong with real power and that was the positive feedback. Just tuning everything out and focusing on what price was actually doing made this trade possible.