Dec 15 – Dec 19, 2025
by Nick Schmidt · December 21, 2025
Came into the week with 30% TSLA and 20% GEV. Both had cushion and were showing strong relative strength while the market was under pressure. Kept an open mind knowing they couldn't keep diverging forever but if the market did turn up they would likely have big moves and lead the way.
Wednesday got ugly. GEV dropped 10% in a single day, well below the $660 pivot I was using. I didn't expect to get out at $620. Closed it for a 7.5% gain after it was up 25%. Gave back more than I should have. It ended up closing the week perfectly, so after being shaken out I ended up buying it back.
Thursday I tried a small GOOGL position vs Wednesday's low. Friday I added more. Both GEV and ASML closed Friday looking like constructive shakeouts. The environment's not easy but the core names I've been focused on, TSLA, GEV, ASML, HOOD, PLTR, all look like they can lead us higher out of high quality bases. They'll crack if the market continues lower but the fact that they're all strong, high quality, high growth names means they could lead us higher. Keeping open minded and adapting quickly.
Sold GEV Wednesday on the breakdown, bought it back Friday on the weekly close. Added GOOGL Thursday and Friday. SERV is a swing trade experiment.
Insane relative strength in TSLA versus the entire market. TSLA officially broke out above its recent consolidation while everything else was weak. The kind of divergence that makes you pay attention.
Strange action. Most stocks moving lower but TSLA and GEV somehow in their own world. GOOGL and ASML starting to show pressure. I knew TSLA and GEV couldn't keep diverging forever but the relative strength was hard to ignore.
Ugly day. GEV dropped 10% and blew through the $660 pivot I was using. Sold at $620 for a 7.5% gain after it had been up 25%. Gave back way more than I should have. Hard to sit through that kind of move but at that point the level was gone and I had to respect the stop.
All focus list names still structurally fine despite the ugliness Wednesday. ASML and GEV starting to look like shakeouts rather than breakdowns. Bought a small GOOGL position against Wednesday's low.
Nice first 30 minutes. PLTR breaking out of its base which confirmed the group strength I've been watching. Added more GOOGL and bought GEV back with a hard stop. The weekly closes on both GEV and ASML looked constructive, shakeouts rather than breakdowns.
If these names are up when the market is dragging them down, imagine what they'll do if the rest of the market moves higher. That's the relative strength signal I keep coming back to. TSLA was up on a day when everything else was red and that kind of action doesn't happen randomly. The market was trying to pull it down and it just wouldn't go.
One of the worst feelings is getting shaken out of a stock but I can't let it make me feel silly for buying back higher or trying again. Most of the time the top stocks to focus on do not change much. GEV shook me out Wednesday and I bought it back Friday because the weekly chart was telling me the same thing it was before the shakeout. The thesis didn't change, the price just scared me.
If my average gains are around 10% then it makes sense to exit into strength there, at least partially. Kind of a way to look at it is in a 10% type of environment, 25% gains should be sold. GEV was up 25% and I didn't take any off and then gave back most of it in a single day. That's the lesson. I need to be more honest about what kind of environment I'm in and size my expectations accordingly.
The feeling at the beginning of a market cycle is like no other. That continues to be the biggest window every time. Since we bottomed in April the market has continued to go up but the feeling the first 3 months has never come back. I think recognizing where you are in the cycle helps calibrate expectations and position sizing. Early cycle you can be more aggressive because the base rate of winners is higher.