Jan 26 – Jan 31, 2026
by Nick Schmidt · February 1, 2026
Started getting traction earlier this week and gave a lot of it away. Looking at the market there are spots of strength but around those spots of strength you have a lot of other names being annihilated in the same groups. I see way too many names I'd rather short here than go long. That being said the market is never obvious and has broken my expectations many times so I would not be surprised if a lot of stuff I was holding does end up moving big next week.
Even any winners I had were extremely volatile, massive moves up and down, and tons of stress. Anything that I got out of with gains felt much more like gambling than trading. I am not calling a top. I am staying open minded and decided to still remain long TSLA and GOOGL plus bought some SQQQ to have some of a hedge. But I for sure have seen enough that looks and feels way too eerily similar to exactly 1 year ago.
I don't mind periods in the market where I don't make progress. They come and go. But I don't like trading every single day trying to make something happen during those periods. My whole journey started from the frustration of placing hundreds of trades to underperform the S&P to finding all of my success by doing less and getting out of my own way. 2024 I placed the fewest trades ever under 40 all year and ended around 70%. Tough month but the year is very young and there's no reason to try so hard to make it happen right now.
After hours buy Wednesday, got stopped Thursday morning, bought back on the bounce. Sized down Friday as market looked dangerous.
Still the one constant. Haven't touched it in 2 months. Best trade this year by far.
Small hedge bought Friday as market looked dangerous with original leaders breaking down.
Rough open again. Bitcoin miner and datacenter names APLD, IREN, WULF, RIOT were turning up but most other things were weak. Out OKLO. JOBY broke last week's low. GOOGL showing relative strength at highs. Ended the day with just GOOGL 20%, WULF 13%, and a very tiny RR position.
After 26 days of zero progress everything suddenly worked at the same time. Account up 6% in a day with nothing but small positions. Data center and nuclear names ripping with WULF, IREN, LEU, OKLO all pushing. Started small pilot positions in IREN and LEU. RR had a wild move with massive increase in fund ownership. First positive feedback all year but I fully expected it to fade since that has been the environment.
Fed decision day with META, MSFT, TSLA reporting after the bell. Nuclear announcement from gov for buildout plans pushing LEU and OKLO higher. Home builders showing strength with TOL looking picture perfect. DXYZ moving but not the time to buy strength. Bought TSLA after hours. Scattered across too many positions now which I don't love.
Brutal day. Stopped out of TSLA early but bought it back on the bounce attempt. Added to LEU at $300 because the position was too small. Mega cap earnings mixed, META up nice, TSLA up a bit, MSFT down. Homebuilders had the most momentum with TOL pushing out of its base. HOOD and PLTR cracking below their bases which is not what you want to see from original leaders. Ended the day at 6 positions.
Gap down. Original leaders not looking good: CRWD, DAVE, PLTR all below their 30-week averages. Only NVDA, RKLB, META still strong. Sized down to just TSLA and GOOGL and bought some SQQQ as a hedge. RS in TOL and homebuilders, a fresh new theme emerging.
Tuesday was up 6%, Friday gave most of it back. In a downtrend you know to sit in cash. The chop tricks you into trying over and over because you keep getting just enough positive feedback to stay engaged.
Rule:When big up days mix with big down days and nothing sticks, reduce size and slow down. Don't let one good day convince you the environment has changed.
Every strength buy this year has failed. The only trades that have worked at all were entered on pullbacks into names with real group strength behind them. 49% of a stocks move is related to its group so having that and buying weakness if at all is the only way at the moment to have a chance at making progress.
Rule:Find strong groups first, then wait for a pullback or quiet day to enter. If you can't get in on weakness, skip it.
In earlier years a market like this meant frustration, trading bigger to make up losses, digging a -35% hole, then needing an impressive year just to get back to even. Now the frustration is still there but it's just about being active and going nowhere instead of actually blowing up.
Rule:The #1 goal in tough environments is keeping your account whole so whenever an easy window opens you pick up where you left off not dig out of a hole. The best thing mathematically for long-term compounding is minimizing drawdowns. When you aren't making progress at least don't go backwards.