Feb 23 – Feb 27, 2026

Nothing's Changed Yet

by Nick Schmidt · February 28, 2026

Last week I wrote about three consecutive days of growth participation and how it could be the start of something, and this week was the market's answer: not yet. NVDA reported strong earnings Wednesday night, went higher after hours, and by Friday it was lower than where it started the week. Unfortunately it's just the same sell-the-good-news pattern continuing from what we've been seeing since October.

It's felt like we've been hanging on by a thread for months but the reality is we're just stuck in a sideways range. This year has consistently broken any expectations I had in both directions so I'm trying to just not have many right now.

The normal for the past two months is just chop. Overnight gaps, extremely volatile ranges, and strength constantly getting sold into. If being active the only entries that make sense are on weakness with extremely good risk-reward and group confirmation behind it. My entry game in this market has been strong but my exit game is weak. Smartest thing I did this year was recognize that my average gain for new positions wasn't getting past 10% so I started taking partial profits when one would hit that, like WULF last month. It's unnatural for me to sell into strength as a trend trader but until this new normal changes, instead of just raising stops I'll be taking partial profits when I have them.

Current Holdings

40% invested|60% cash

SymbolAvg CostLastP&L

TSLA25%

$394.39$402.55+2.07%

Avg $394.39Last $402.55

ET15%

$17.80$18.83+5.79%

Avg $17.80Last $18.83

Trade Activity

TSLAholding

Got stopped out of the prior week's entry Monday morning and watched it drift down to $394. This is my number one conviction play right now so I was glued to the screen and when I saw what looked like a possible bounce I started some near the low just in case, and it ended up rallying into the close. The fact that I caught near the actual low is just a lot of luck involved. The thesis is the $400 level is a five-year pivot and it holds on the retest, but if this market pressure continues I'll probably be out of this one soon too.

TSLA monthly chart showing the $400 pivot level at the top of a multi-year base — **TSLA Monthly** — The reason this is my top focus. That $400 pivot level is the top of a massive base going back years and the thesis is it holds as support on the retest.

TSLA weekly chart showing re-entry near the lows with stop placed under the week's low to hold $400 — **TSLA Weekly — Entry** — Re-entered near the lows of the week with a stop placed right under to hold over $400. Closed at $402.51.

NXTstopped

I missed the initial move out of the prior base so this pullback into the breakout pivot was the secondary entry. Small size, super tight stop, the kind of trade where it either works quick or you're out quick with almost nothing lost. Gapped down Thursday and stopped on the open.

NXT weekly chart at secondary entry retesting breakout pivot — **NXT Weekly — Entry** — Pulling back into the breakout pivot from the prior base.

NXT weekly chart end of week after being stopped — **NXT Weekly — End of Week** — Gapped down Thursday and stopped on the open.

MUstoppedBought and stopped out within 20 minutes. Not a high-quality entry, just overtrading in this environment.

ASMLexited

Broke out of a base earlier this week and when it pulled back in I was watching it. Attempted the first moment I saw it trying to bounce Thursday with my stop under the low in case, looking for it to close back above the pivot. It did, and the low of the week ended up being my stop. Closed right on top of the pivot so it could have been a successful retest entry but I sold it to reduce exposure into the weekend because of the crappy action everywhere else.

ASML weekly chart showing base breakout, shakeout retest, and entry on the first bounce

ENPHstopped

Best performing position over the last two weeks, was up around 10%, and then solar got hit Friday and it came all the way back to a small loss. The character change is still there though, that gap on the highest volume in a year is real. The focus now is just waiting for a potential new higher low to be established and for the solar group to stop breaking down.

ENPH weekly chart showing the character change gap, run to $51, and round-trip back on solar washout

Lessons

Being right about a stock and making money are different skills

GEV had been a stock to focus on for the past eight months. Perfect flat base, major shakeout candle back into the base, I traded it a few times but kept getting stopped. Even though the trade was still intact I got worn out of it and moved my focus somewhere else. It broke out weeks ago and has been on a non-stop powerful move higher since, playing out exactly how I thought it would, and I don't own a single share. Fumbled the execution.

Rule:Identifying a setup is maybe 20% of the job. Staying focused on it long enough for it to work is the other 80%.

GEV weekly chart showing the flat base, shakeout, and powerful breakout move

The more you zoom out the less random it gets

VIAV is up 70% from its recent consolidation and the base alone is impressive, 10+ weeks tight which is a long time for a stock to go nowhere. But zoom out further and you see that consolidation wasn't at a random level, it was sitting right at a previous high. That context makes the base way more significant because it's not just a pause in a trend, it's a stock digesting a meaningful level before moving through it.

Rule:Zoom out and check prior highs. Sometimes a base that looks good on its own turns out to be at a much more significant level than you realized, and that has a lot to do with the power of the move that comes out of it.

VIAV weekly chart showing the 10+ week tight base — **The base** — 10+ weeks tight, impressive on its own.

VIAV weekly chart zoomed out showing the base sitting at a prior multi-year high — **Zoomed out** — That base was sitting right at a prior high from years ago. Completely different story.