Mar 2 – Mar 6, 2026
Death by a Thousand Cuts
by Nick Schmidt · March 7, 2026
This market just has me placing trades I shouldn't be placing and I know it while I'm doing it which is the frustrating part. Monday I bought the dip like I've been doing for months, Tuesday weakness triggered stops, Wednesday I placed another trade until I finally stepped back and realized like what the hell am I doing.
The main watch going into last week was the Nasdaq 10-week. For the first time in months it's actually being respected, four weeks ago that level was invisible and price just chopped through it but now that it's sloping down the market is fading each rally into it. By the end of the week yeah the high was once again the declining 10-week and that's three consecutive rejections now. Something changed underneath even if the price range looks the same.
Current Holdings
15% invested|85% cash
SymbolAvg CostLastP&L
ET15%
$17.80$18.66+4.83%Avg $17.80Last $18.66
Day by Day
Monday
—Dip Bought2026-03-02Big gap down below the 30-week on QQQ and buyers showed up aggressively, 73%+ of stocks moving higher by the close. Same pattern we've seen for two months now where weakness gets bought. Solar and energy was the relative strength theme going in so I leaned into the dip with a couple positions, still operating under the assumption that this environment rewards buying weakness.
- TAN pulled back to the 10-week over the weekend, solar group showing relative strength across the board
- ENPH early strength with a new potential higher low at the rising 30-week, still a top focus but about 7% to low which is too wide for meaningful size
- MRCY attempting its prior all-time high at $95.50 to the penny, significant if it closes above
- WWD extremely tight near highs, energy systems for industrial power and defense
- TLN quiet after earnings, big lower wick gives a similar shakeout feel as GEV with a double bottom
BoughtTSLA (Added on the wick low bounce), HL (Small position in silver miners on weakness)
Tuesday
—Bull Trap2026-03-03Gap down again, completely different feel than Monday with no buyers at the open. Monday's strength looked more like a bull trap and stops hit on everything I just tried so I was all cash besides ET. Software is leading the bounce which doesn't feel great because the most beaten-down names rallying first is more like junk off the bottom than real rotation, and that's usually a warning sign not a bullish one.
- First 20 minutes completely different than Monday, no aggressive demand at the open
- Software leading the bounce, skeptical
SoldTSLA (Tossed most added yesterday to reduce risk), HL (Stopped out on gap down), TSLA (Stop hit, fully out)
Wednesday
—Observe Mode2026-03-04Tried another small TSLA trade I probably shouldn't have made but the standout of the day was materials. XLB had its first pullback since breaking out of a five-year base and buyers aggressively stepped in at the 10-week. The overall trend could still be very early and materials is more of a defensive risk-off group which is worth noting given how growth has been acting.
- LYB and DOW from the watchlist participating in the materials strength
- CIFR and IREN in big weekly bases, bitcoin miners turned AI data center plays with politician buying in IREN
BoughtTSLA (Small position, can't leave it alone)
Thursday
—Removing Myself2026-03-05Tried IREN on the data center strength and it failed almost immediately so I had to physically remove myself from the screen to stop clicking buttons. The QQQ keeps fading each rally into the declining 10-week and at this point four consecutive weeks of that looks less like random chop and more like organized selling to me.
- IREN, NBIS, CIFR all with A+ weekly bases, in a really poor environment
- Software leading momentum again, skeptical of the most beaten-down group leading
BoughtIREN (Small try on data center strength)
SoldIREN (Failed almost immediately, stopped out)
Friday
—Disconnected2026-03-06Completely uninterested in the morning gap down regardless of whether it got bought up or not. The environment has been poor and I've been way too active in it, and even if the market turns strong next week at the pace I'm going I'm just chopping away at my mental capital and I wouldn't even be in the right headspace to take advantage of it.
- QQQ weekly candle: rallied into declining 10-week and faded for the third consecutive time
- First close below a support level that's been holding for weeks
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Lessons
01
When a moving average starts mattering it's telling you something changed
Four weeks ago nobody would have even drawn the 10-week on the QQQ because it was meaningless, price just chopped through it like it didn't exist. Now it's fading there three times in a row and something about that feels different to me, like the supply and demand underneath actually changed even though the price range looks the same. I think when a level goes from invisible to suddenly acting as a ceiling that's the market telling you it's relevant now.
Rule:A moving average going from meaningless to meaningful is one of the clearest signs something changed underneath.
02
The gap between knowing something and actually doing it
IREN had one of the best weekly bases I've seen in months and it didn't matter because the environment was wrong. I keep coming back to context over setup because it goes against every instinct to see an A+ chart and not act on it, and I know this, I've written about it, I've traded through it before, but in the moment you just convince yourself this time is different. That gap between knowing something and actually executing on it is always the biggest gap for traders including myself.
03
Controlling your environment is more powerful than discipline
I built my whole strategy around zooming out and stepping away and somehow I still found myself glued to the screen this week with bad habits I thought I'd moved past. Buying TSLA getting stopped buying it back getting stopped again, that's not trading that's just activity because I'm sitting there and something is in front of me. By Friday the smartest thing I did all week was just step away from the desk and turn alerts off.