Mar 23 – Mar 27, 2026
Remember This Week
by Nick Schmidt · March 28, 2026
Started the week in cash and ended in cash. We still haven't had a follow-through day and Thursday was the earliest one could have come so I could have taken zero trades this week and just waited. But Tuesday and Wednesday I started seeing things under the surface that felt different, price decoupling from headlines, growth rotating higher while risk-off faded, and I was willing to put on a little risk to find out if what I was seeing was real. Thursday broke it immediately and I was back to cash.
Keep this one in mind going forward because downtrend rallies are always convincing. The gap up on Monday, the signs building midweek, the reversal, you're going to see this again. Friday made a new low and the further down we go the better the environment and opportunities coming out of it will be.
Current Holdings
0% invested|100% cash
SymbolAvg CostLastP&L
Back to cash after cutting Wednesday's test positions Thursday.
Day by Day
Monday
—Gap Up Trap2026-03-23Market swung from down 1.5% to up 2.5% premarket on a headline and the first hour had broad participation. By the close relative strength names were being sold into and heavy volume but no price progression on the indexes which looks a lot like churn. No follow-through day, weekly chart unchanged.
- DELL, CIEN stood out with strength but the overall leadership list continued narrowing
Tuesday
2026-03-24Opened flat and the first positive expectation breaker showed up. Negative headlines hit after Monday's positive pump and we didn't gap down. Individual names also acted better than the indexes which was a flip from Monday. One day doesn't mean anything but could this be a subtle change under the surface before a follow-through day?
- AAOI, LITE, GEV, STRL, STX, VIAV, VRT, WDC all stronger than the indexes on a red day
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Wednesday
—Positive Expectation Breaker2026-03-25More positive expectation breakers. Risk-off groups faded while growth in data centers, semis, and space moved higher. In the downtrend everything has been moving together so that differentiation stood out. Enough signs had built up that I put on small test positions ahead of Thursday which would be the first day a follow-through day was even possible.
- Space leading with real traction: ASTS, PL, RKLB, LUNR all showing strength, SpaceX IPO buzz helping the group
- NBIS gapping higher in data centers
BoughtPL (~10% starter, space group strength), NBIS (Small starter, stopped out same day), ENPH (~10% on weakness, character change intact)
Thursday
—Negative Expectation Breaker2026-03-26Immediate negative expectation breaker. Any positive developments from Tuesday and Wednesday were gone. Optics and memory names that had been the last groups holding up were cracking, leadership narrowing not broadening. Instead of a follow-through day we got the opposite. Cut everything and went back to fully cash.
- Last remaining leaders in optics/memory breaking down, space the only group still intact
SoldPL (Tossed, expectations broken), ENPH (Tossed, expectations broken)
Real-time posts from this day (3)
Friday
—New Low2026-03-27Nothing to do heading into the weekend. Market made a new low confirming Thursday's negative expectation breaker was right to act on. The market needs more time.
Lessons
01
Size based on what you're willing to lose
I size every position based on what I'm willing to lose. I didn't believe the downtrend was over Wednesday but there were a few days of growth acting different so I put on small positions. They weren't sized based on what I could make if this really turned. They were sized based on I'm fine risking this much to find out if it's real. Thursday when everything reversed I didn't have to think about cutting because the amount at risk was already something I was okay losing.
02
When price stops reacting to news
On the way down in any correction price moves in lockstep with headlines. Good news up, bad news down, completely correlated. One of the things I watch for is when price starts decoupling from the news cycle. Last April the tariff situation was very similar to what we're seeing now, very volatile going up and down on every headline. After the market bottomed the tariff headlines never stopped but volatility went down and price just stopped reacting. That decoupling between price and headlines was one of the first signs the bottom was in. Something to watch for going forward.
03
The follow-through day
A follow-through day is a significant up move on increasing volume that happens several days into a rally attempt. The reason I rely on it so heavily is it tends to show up when nobody believes the downtrend is over which is exactly what makes it valuable. It gets you back involved before the turn becomes obvious and everything is already extended. Last April we got one and just objectively listening to it kept me on the right side. Having a clear on/off signal makes sitting doing nothing much easier.